The Belarusian revolution. No matter how the events of our neighbors behind Polissya end, their country will no longer be as it was before. If Lukashenko’s regime suppresses the revolutionaries, it will only radicalize the next round, which will happen very soon. If they really manage to overthrow “the last dictator of Europe,” Belarus will enter the stage of multidimensional instability in which Ukraine currently finds itself. After all, neither the openly pro-Russian opposition, nor the nationalists (most of whom are now in exile) will be able to seize power alone.
It is still difficult to draw unambiguous conclusions about whether the August 2020 uprising is the beginning of the Belarusian national revolution or a prologue to it (as there was once the Orange in Ukraine), but the preconditions for the revolution have already been formed, and it is obvious. Now the Belarusians must not repeat the mistake of the Ukrainian nationalists. They urgently need to position themselves as a certain institution at the national level. It is not the pro-Russian opposition that should oppose the regime, but some structure of the nationally oriented Belarusians. Otherwise, it may finish up as in our case: the victory in the revolution was won by the nationalists, yet the renewed state was headed by the opposition of kleptocrats under the guise of national slogans.
One thing is clear. The swamp is over, from now on it will be boiling to the north of us. For Belarus is alive there now!*
In the photo – Minsk, 9.VІІІ.2020.
- “Жыве Беларусь!” (Belarus is alive / lives) is a Belarusian patriotic slogan.
